Toward A Believability Score

In Wall Street investment circles there is a concept known as the “conviction rating.” The conviction rating is applied to investment ideas as an indicator of the degree of certainty that the investment will produce a profitable outcome. The scale may be on 1 to 10 basis with 10 being the highest absolute certainty that a profit is going to be realized. For example, an investment in Amazon stock today could have a conviction rating of 8 based on the consensus of the analysts in the investment firm. Some other examples:

The DOW will open much lower this coming Monday due to the Covid-19 virus spreading. Conviction rating: 10

Netflix share price will rise as more people “nest” at home in response to the Covid-19 situation. Conviction rating: 7

The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at their next scheduled meeting. Conviction rating: 9

Railroad stocks will plunge because high speed rail will be implemented by Tesla in the next 5 years. Conviction rating: 2

You get the idea…

Now, let’s use the same concept and apply it to the field of Ufology – that realm of endless rabbit holes, mythologies, folklore, religious-like zealousness, strict fact, wild claims, misinformation, disinformation, credible witnesses, hoaxsters, government intelligence operatives, psyops, physical evidence, hearsay, well-documented certitudes and, well, you get the idea…

There are certain people, events and places in the history of the phenomena that have risen to heights of popularity and interest amongst researchers and the general public, Roswell being the most obvious example. There are certain cases that comprise a sort of historical tapestry of the UFO story in modern times, opinions and interpretations of what occurred, their meaning and relevance vary of course, but there is a general consensus on a timeline of events and how they may be interrelated. One example of an excellent timeline may be found in Richard Dolan’s 2 books on UFOs and the National Security State. 

As all researchers know it is often hard to separate the reality-wheat from the chaff in this field. A ranking system approximated as best we can discern from logic and facts surrounding each case is a useful tool in sharpening the focus of the distorted ufology picture.
Here we will change conviction ranking to a score. Let’s use a score range of 1 through 10 for the sake of this exercise. With 10 being the highest confidence of absolute fact, in other words, rare! I give it a range of 10 due to the often incremental blend of factual truth and perception distortion to outright charlatanism and quackery associated with the phenomena. 1 to 5 would seem too limiting. Beyond 10, too expansive a margin which would invite analysis paralysis. Let’s call it the Metron Paranormal Believability Score.

Item, Theory or Concept	Score
Area 51 exists	10
Area 51 as a test base for exotic technologies	9
Area 51 as test base for reverse engineering of non-terrestrial tech, housing of systems of non-human design	7
Bob Lazar story	8
McCandlish Saucer	7
MJ-12 Documents	5
MJ-12 Existence	8
Cydonia, Face on Mars	TBD
Pascagoula, MS abduction	8
Cash – Landrum Incident	8
Roswell, NM cover-up	7
AATIP	10
Nimitz Battlegroup “tic tac” encounter	10
“Fast mover”	9
Skinwalker Ranch	8
Galliman’s DMT/Orthogonal Dimension theory	6
UFO phenomena – sightings and observations are symbolic	6
UFO phenomena – contactee experience are symbolic	8
The US military intelligence complex is responsible for some of the abduction experiences	5
Billy Meier	1
Remote Viewing as a viable process	9
Operation Paperclip	10
The (ETH) extraterrestrial hypothesis that UFO and their occupants can only be from advanced spacefaring civilizations	6
The Breakaway Civilization theory	7
Cash-Landrum incident	9

Because of the frequently changing nature of the phenomena the scores may be updated as events warrant. New information and facts come to light, sometimes years after an initial event has occurred, as researchers continue to diligently plow deeper into every angle of a case. The best cases exhibit fact-checking of the fact-checking. 

Most of the cases in this list are still “in play.” That is, they are actively being researched, discussed and reported through various media channels, by various people. One good example of this is the Bob Lazar/Area 51 story. Another is the Nimitz “tic tac” episode – which just got a major boost from the recent Popular Mechanics expose. Some cases are irretrievably dead, such as the Billy Meier case which, while entertaining enough, has irrefutably been proven to be a long running hoax. 

Therefore it is logical to update the score periodically as new information comes to the fore. This chart is only a small sample of the possible cases that can be scored, it can be augmented by textual commentaries supporting the reasons for the current score (those currently exist in my head). Addition of cases/scores increases the population sample size of the phenomena from historical perspective. Thus, it should be possible to ascertain an overall verity of the phenomena. Obviously this is not an entirely objective tool, much of it is open to the subjective influence of a person’s internal biases, fallacious assumptions and beliefs. But it’s a start. 

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