The third tranche of UAP files from the Department of War was recently published. Of the talk amongst researchers, it’s apparent that some of the most interesting files are from the FBI circa 1952 – 1967 from two different field offices. We took those 2 files as the source material for our most recent analysis. Continue reading “Analytic Assessment of Recently Released FBI UFO/UAP Files”
Category Archives: Believability Score
The Usefulness of Probability in the Approach to the Study of the UFO/UAP Phenomenon.
If you estimate probabilities for every belief you can therefore choose the belief that features the highest probability. This is can be used for purposes of predicting outcomes. But it can also be used to add weight to a belief one is looking to validate. We take a basic probability formula, P(A) = n(A)/n(S) orContinue reading “The Usefulness of Probability in the Approach to the Study of the UFO/UAP Phenomenon.”
Toward A Believability Score
In Wall Street investment circles there is a concept known as the “conviction rating.” The conviction rating is applied to investment ideas as an indicator of the degree of certainty that the investment will produce a profitable outcome. The scale may be on 1 to 10 basis with 10 being the highest absolute certainty thatContinue reading “Toward A Believability Score”
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